D1VolleyballStats · CORA rankings
2026 season · through October 8, 2026

D1 Volleyball Rankings

CORA rates every Division I team from every rally of every match, adjusted for the strength of each opponent and each conference. It isn't a vote, and it isn't a formula of wins and losses. Below the rankings, we show in the open how well it predicts matches compared with the rankings people already use.

77.8%
of 12,017 D1 matches called before they were played · 2024–2026
66%
right when CORA and the RPI disagree on who's better: 1,310 to 675
5 for 5
other rating systems beaten head-to-head, every season, every gap statistically significant
76.1%
2026 so far · 2,389 matches · retested daily

CORA Top 50

Ranked by CORA: the share of rallies each team would win against an average D1 team, from 2,654 matches this season, starting from last season and fading it out as this season's results arrive. Click a column to sort. AVCA: Oct. 5 AVCA-Taraflex Division I WVB Poll. RPI: the NCAA's, through games Oct. 04 2026.

1NebraskaBig Ten16–064.6%±1.113
2LouisvilleACC14–262.5%±1.237
3KentuckySEC11–362.0%±1.242
4PittsburghACC14–161.7%±1.221
5SMUACC13–260.7%±1.164
6WisconsinBig Ten10–460.6%±1.275
7FloridaSEC12–160.4%±1.256
8BYUBig 1211–159.9%±1.31713
9Arizona St.Big 1211–359.7%±1.21123
10WashingtonBig Ten12–159.7%±1.32010
11Michigan St.Big Ten13–159.7%±1.22222
12TennesseeSEC10–359.6%±1.31019
13Texas A&MSEC10–659.6%±1.11224
14MinnesotaBig Ten7–559.5%±1.32139
15TexasSEC7–559.3%±1.399
16KansasBig 1210–459.3%±1.21927
17IllinoisBig Ten11–459.1%±1.22433
18VanderbiltSEC11–259.0%±1.3RV11
19TCUBig 1213–258.8%±1.188
20OregonBig Ten12–258.6%±1.21315
21PurdueBig Ten8–558.6%±1.31618
22Penn St.Big Ten10–458.1%±1.21812
23IndianaBig Ten10–458.1%±1.21516
24BaylorBig 128–658.1%±1.2RV20
25UtahBig 1211–458.0%±1.2RV26
26StanfordACC9–558.0%±1.21430
27Georgia TechACC11–457.8%±1.2RV31
28UCLABig Ten11–457.8%±1.2RV14
29Colorado St.Pac-1211–357.1%±1.2RV29
30GeorgiaSEC11–256.9%±1.2RV21
31HawaiiMountain West12–356.8%±1.2—44
32San DiegoWCC7–656.8%±1.3—58
33North CarolinaACC9–356.7%±1.22517
34MarquetteBig East8–656.5%±1.2—75
35MichiganBig Ten10–556.5%±1.2—40
36Cal PolyBig West8–656.3%±1.2—116
37Southern CaliforniaBig Ten7–756.3%±1.2RV57
38Mississippi St.SEC11–356.1%±1.3—86
39ColoradoBig 1211–356.0%±1.22336
40MissouriSEC8–755.9%±1.1—48
41OklahomaSEC9–455.9%±1.2—34
42UNIMVC10–555.8%±1.2—98
43TulsaAmerican12–355.6%±1.2—72
44CreightonBig East8–855.6%±1.1RV41
45Long Beach St.Big West11–355.6%±1.2—49
46San Diego St.Pac-128–655.5%±1.2—99
47Kansas St.Big 129–355.4%±1.3—52
48Miami (FL)ACC5–855.2%±1.3—90
49CaliforniaACC12–355.2%±1.1—45
50AuburnSEC11–454.9%±1.2—68

This week: CORA's odds

Every D1 match in the next seven days, with CORA's chance for the favorite and its most likely score. These are honest odds, not locks: favorites CORA gives 75% win about three times in four, and in 2025 about 8 D1 favorites of 80–90% lost every week. Showing the 31 matches between two top-50 teams.

Match
#30 Georgiaat#38 Mississippi St.Georgia 51%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 9
7:00 PM ET
#37 Southern Californiaat#21 PurduePurdue 75%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 9
7:00 PM ET
#20 Oregonat#11 Michigan St.Michigan St. 65%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 9
7:30 PM ET
#7 Floridaat#40 MissouriFlorida 81%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 9
8:00 PM ET
#50 Auburnat#18 VanderbiltVanderbilt 86%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 9
8:00 PM ET
#39 Coloradoat#9 Arizona St.Arizona St. 84%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 9
10:00 PM ET
#20 Oregonat#35 MichiganOregon 64%
likely 3–1
Sat, Oct 10
7:00 PM ET
#6 Wisconsinat#1 NebraskaNebraska 86%
likely 3–0
Sat, Oct 10
7:00 PM ET
#36 Cal Polyat#45 Long Beach St.Cal Poly 51%
likely 3–1
Sat, Oct 10
9:00 PM ET
#10 Washingtonat#22 Penn St.Washington 59%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
12:00 PM ET
#17 Illinoisat#21 PurduePurdue 51%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
1:00 PM ET
#27 Georgia Techat#48 Miami (FL)Georgia Tech 68%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
1:00 PM ET
#26 Stanfordat#2 LouisvilleLouisville 88%
likely 3–0
Sun, Oct 11
1:00 PM ET
#37 Southern Californiaat#23 IndianaIndiana 71%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
2:00 PM ET
#4 Pittsburghat#5 SMUPittsburgh 54%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
2:00 PM ET
#7 Floridaat#18 VanderbiltFlorida 58%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
2:00 PM ET
#50 Auburnat#40 MissouriMissouri 64%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
3:00 PM ET
#47 Kansas St.at#39 ColoradoColorado 60%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
3:00 PM ET
#15 Texasat#41 OklahomaTexas 74%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
3:00 PM ET
#19 TCUat#9 Arizona St.Arizona St. 64%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
5:00 PM ET
#38 Mississippi St.at#40 MissouriMissouri 54%
likely 3–1
Wed, Oct 14
7:00 PM ET
#11 Michigan St.at#17 IllinoisIllinois 50%
likely 3–1
Thu, Oct 15
7:00 PM ET
#16 Kansasat#47 Kansas St.Kansas 77%
likely 3–1
Thu, Oct 15
7:30 PM ET
#8 BYUat#25 UtahBYU 62%
likely 3–1
Thu, Oct 15
9:00 PM ET
#3 Kentuckyat#41 OklahomaKentucky 90%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 16
7:00 PM ET
#7 Floridaat#13 Texas A&MFlorida 52%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 16
7:00 PM ET
#50 Auburnat#15 TexasTexas 87%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 16
7:30 PM ET
#35 Michiganat#14 MinnesotaMinnesota 80%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 16
8:00 PM ET
#48 Miami (FL)at#5 SMUSMU 92%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 16
8:00 PM ET
#23 Indianaat#20 OregonOregon 60%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 16
9:00 PM ET
#22 Penn St.at#28 UCLAUCLA 52%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 16
10:00 PM ET

Odds update with every result, several times a day; the last pregame odds are kept for every match.

Who calls it better?

Every ranking is a claim about who's better. We test them the fair way: replay each season one day at a time, predict every match using only what happened before it, and keep score. Every system is scored on the same matches. Log loss scores the confidence as well as the pick: calling a team a 90% favorite and losing costs far more than calling it 55% and losing. Lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.693.

All 3 seasons together (2024, 2025, 2026): 12,017 matches

SystemLog lossBetter than a coin flipPicked the winnerCross-conference log lossSeasons CORA beat it (p < .01)
CORA (ours)
Every rally, adjusted for opponents and conference strength
0.462
33%
77.8%0.475
Pablo-style
Replica built from Pablo's published method: point share, capped, 42-day fade
0.487
30%
76.4%0.5193 of 3
Massey
Point margin, least squares (1997 method)
0.511
26%
76.4%0.5713 of 3
Sets only
Sets won and lost
0.513
26%
74.9%0.5573 of 3
Wins only
Wins and losses only: the information the RPI and NPI use
0.533
23%
72.8%0.5673 of 3
Elo with margin
Wins scaled by margin, match by match (FiveThirtyEight style)
0.540
22%
72.2%0.5723 of 3

Rankings without win chances

The RPI and the coaches' poll only rank teams, so the test is simpler: did the better-ranked team win? CORA is scored on exactly the same matches. Where the two rankings disagree, McNemar's test says whether the difference is bigger than luck.

RankingMatchesIts higher-ranked team wonCORA, same matchesWhere they disagreedSignificance
RPI (our calculation of the formula)12,01671.9%77.2%CORA right 1310, theirs right 675p < .001
AVCA coaches poll1,41985.2%85.8%CORA right 52, theirs right 43p = .412 (not yet significant)

The coaches' poll ranks only 25 teams, so far fewer matches separate it from CORA. It takes several seasons of disagreements to tell the two apart; this test grows every week.

Season by season

SystemLog lossBetter than a coin flipPicked the winnerCross-conference log lossvs. CORA
CORA (ours)
Every rally, adjusted for opponents and conference strength
0.479
31%
76.1%0.487
Pablo-style
Replica built from Pablo's published method: point share, capped, 42-day fade
0.526
24%
73.8%0.550CORA better, p < .001
Sets only
Sets won and lost
0.565
19%
70.7%0.591CORA better, p < .001
Massey
Point margin, least squares (1997 method)
0.575
17%
73.8%0.621CORA better, p < .001
Wins only
Wins and losses only: the information the RPI and NPI use
0.579
16%
69.1%0.597CORA better, p < .001
Elo with margin
Wins scaled by margin, match by match (FiveThirtyEight style)
0.586
15%
67.6%0.595CORA better, p < .001

2,389 matches between D1 teams, August 21, 2026 to October 7, 2026, each predicted using only matches played before it. CORA started from the season before.

RankingMatchesIts higher-ranked team wonCORA, same matchesWhere they disagreedSignificance
RPI (our calculation of the formula)
Every match between D1 teams, ranked from results before that day.
2,38868.2%76.2%CORA right 361, theirs right 171p < .001
AVCA coaches poll
Matches with at least one ranked team, using the poll out before the match (unranked counts below every ranked team).
22883.3%82.0%CORA right 11, theirs right 14p = .690 (not yet significant)

This season's results update every day as matches are played (last run Oct 8, 5:08 PM CT).

How CORA works

Why not the RPI?

The RPI only knows who won. It can't tell a 3–0 rout from a 3–2 escape, and it judges a schedule by opponents' win percentages, so a weak conference that beats up on itself looks stronger than it is. That's why it misses the matches that are actually in doubt. It's the NCAA's tool for picking a tournament field from results; CORA's job is to tell you who's better.

How we test it

Pablo is tested as a replica built from its published method, because its site doesn't allow automated access. The RPI is our calculation of the NCAA formula, from D1 matches only. It matches the NCAA's published RPI almost exactly (rank correlation .999; the top 15 within a place), and as the NCAA publishes its RPI each week this season, we score those directly too. CORA was built and first tested on Division II; the full methodology has every ingredient and what each one adds.